China's regulatory policy on Bitcoin trading presents a dual-track feature of "strict prohibition domestically and limited pilot programs overseas." The possibility of full opening in the short term is low, but there is room for structural adjustment:
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- Current Policy Framework
Comprehensive prohibition of trading: All Bitcoin trading platforms in China have been shut down, financial institutions are prohibited from providing related services, and personal over-the-counter trading is classified as illegal financial activity and is not protected by law.
Technical control: Strengthening regulation through means such as marking on-chain addresses and intercepting transaction funds through bank risk control systems. By 2025, 523 related websites have been blocked. - Analysis of Opening Possibilities
Hong Kong's pilot role: Hong Kong allows licensed exchanges to provide Bitcoin ETFs and spot trading, forming a "regulatory sandbox," but funds must flow in a closed loop, and mainland investors can only participate in a limited way through compliant channels (such as "Southbound Trading").
International competitive pressure: Countries like the United States are accelerating their embrace of cryptocurrencies. China may observe international trends through the Hong Kong pilot, but adjustments to mainland policies need to balance financial stability and technological risks. - Potential Future Paths
Conditional opening: Former Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao and others suggest that a "regulated partial opening" could be considered based on international experience, such as allowing institutional investors to participate through Hong Kong channels.
Direction of technological integration: Regulatory authorities may prioritize promoting the integration of digital renminbi with blockchain technology rather than directly allowing Bitcoin trading.
China's policy on Bitcoin trading remains focused on risk prevention, with an extremely low probability of full opening in the short term, but the Hong Kong pilot and international competition may drive minor adjustments in local policies.